(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its target for the US equity benchmark in a further sign of growing skepticism on the outlook of the world’s largest economy.
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The bank’s strategists cut the year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 6,200 from 6,500, implying an 11% gain from Tuesday’s close. The reduction was also in view of declines in the “Magnificent 7” stocks.
“Our revised estimates reflect the recently reduced GDP growth forecast of our US economics team, a higher assumed tariff rate, and higher level of uncertainty that is typically associated with a greater equity risk premium,” strategists including David Kostin and Jenny Ma wrote in a note dated Tuesday.
Goldman joins a growing chorus of banks that have expressed concerns over economic growth amid heightening geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts at Citigroup Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc downgraded their views on US equities this week, citing similar worries around the economy and noted better opportunities elsewhere.
Market forecasters at banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and RBC Capital Markets have also tempered bullish calls for 2025.
President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again trade policies and the ongoing government job cuts have sent measures of consumer and business sentiment lower as recession fears mount. The uncertainty has pushed the S&P 500 gauge down by more than 9% from a high in February, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 tumbled into correction last week.
Goldman strategists trimmed their earnings growth forecast for the year to 7% from 9% and reduced their price-to-earnings ratio by 4%. Kostin was among analysts who were bullish on US stocks last year and has warned of growth risk to equities in recent weeks.
They said investors should own stocks that are insulated from the major drivers of ongoing market volatility such as lender Bank of New York Mellon Corp., financial information services provider S&P Global Inc., and rating agency Moody’s Corp.
Market participants should also consider stocks hammered by the hedge fund positioning unwind that trade at discounted valuations such as software maker Informatica Inc. and music streaming services provider Spotify Technology SA, they added.
–With assistance from Winnie Hsu.
