(Bloomberg) — Oil steadied after the biggest gain in almost four weeks as tighter Russian crude supply overshadowed concerns over the fallout from President Donald Trump’s expanding tariffs.
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Brent futures were near $76 a barrel after closing 1.6% higher on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate traded above $72 following a two-day gain. Russian data showed production last month slipped further below the nation’s OPEC+ quota, according to people familiar with the figures.
Oil has had a rocky start to the year, initially rising on higher heating demand due to a cold Northern Hemisphere winter and US sanctions on Russia’s crude industry. However, prices have declined the past three weeks as Trump’s tariff regime has threatened trade wars on multiple fronts.
The US president most recently ordered a 25% tariff on all US aluminum and steel imports, including from Canada and Mexico, the country’s top two foreign suppliers. The levies take effect on March 4, and Trump said they “may go higher,” casting the effort to help bolster domestic production.
“Modeling the impact on what we currently know and what we don’t know on tariffs remains a sizeable challenge,” said Chris Weston, head of research for Pepperstone Group Ltd. But for now, “a mix of short-covering and organic buying suggests we may have seen a short-term low in place.”
Trump has also said Israel should call off its ceasefire agreement with Hamas if hostages aren’t returned this weekend, risking another escalation of hostilities. Both have accused each other of violating the terms of the deal.
There are signs of tightness in some corners of the market, notably in the Middle East, where the broader curtailment of competing flows has meant that producers in the region have been able to raise prices for their main Asian customers. In Europe, soaring natural gas prices has made it more cost-effective to burn oil, which could potentially lead to a demand boost.
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