As the fourth quarter of 2024 wrapped up, freight brokers everywhere were left with a collective headache. With the earnings reports of publicly traded brokerages now out in the open, the numbers told a story that most in the industry had already lived through – and it wasn’t pretty. In fact, it was the kind of quarter that had many brokers double-checking their calendars as Q4 historically has been a gangbuster quarter.
C.H. Robinson managed to put up better numbers year over year, but sequentially, its performance was down. Uber Freight, for its part, continued to struggle as it extended its more than two-year run of losses on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Meanwhile, Landstar disappointed with its guidance, giving investors pause.
RXO, which now has a full handle on the Coyote Logistics integration, was anticipated to keep its streak of decent quarters alive, boosted by the Coyote business. That optimism didn’t fully pan out. Investors made their stance clear — RXO’s stock promptly dropped 14.92% on the day of the company’s Q4 earnings call.
The cost of purchased transportation was on the rise, while sales rates were still recovering from their long, painful decline. RXO CEO Drew Wilkerson put it bluntly: “We were forecasting some sort of recovery in the freight market … and if that did not happen, that we would sacrifice a little bit of volume and potentially a little bit of EBITDA as well. And that is what played out.”
Shippers continued to push for lower rates, while carriers, squeezed by their own rising costs, weren’t exactly in the mood to negotiate. The result? Margin compression, lower gross profit per load and a whole lot of frustration – the exact scenario that is played out every day and that is a surprise only to Wall Street.
The situation raises the ever-looming question of when the freight market will finally turn for the better. There is stability, and hope is growing that the turn has arrived, but is it showing up on the balance sheet?
According to Wilkerson, the first signs of rate increases have started to appear, with purchased transportation costs rising year over year for the first time in two and a half years. While that might be a silver lining, it’s not exactly cause for celebration just yet.
At least everything is basically on an upward trend. It’s certainly better than this time last year.
TRAC Tuesday. This week’s lane goes from Los Angeles to Denver, a lengthy 1,017-mile jaunt over the Rocky Mountains. The Los Angeles market remains one of the largest in the country courtesy of imports at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Spot rates on this lane are the lowest since the end of October. There is little to suggest that rates will increase, as capacity is loosening in Denver but not experiencing much change in LA. Denver has dropped 1.14% in outbound tender rejections week over week for a 6.28% rejection rate. The good thing about Denver’s dropping OTRI is that shippers and brokers can expect stronger contract carrier compliance.
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