One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you’re buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we’ve seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we’re not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
Key insights from the pod:
Housing developers are still under stress — 4:44
Smaller firms can no longer “extend and pretend” — 6:17
What numbers you should look at right now — 9:45
When we will see peak housing supply — 11:29
How federal dollars are important for development — 13:46
The number of migrants in construction labor — 17:47
Baby Boomers vs. Gen Z in housing — 20:39
The houses aren’t where people want to live — 24:29
Where CMBS and CLOs stand right now — 28:52
How the LA wildfires will impact construction — 30:04
